All matches

Houston Dynamo — Minnesota United, MLS

USA, MLS

Houston Dynamo
2.1LDLWD
—
Minnesota United
1.9LLLLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
47%25%28%
Houston Dynamo47%Draw25%Minnesota United28%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Houston Dynamo47%2.11—
XDraw25%3.98—
2Minnesota United28%3.63—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes57%

ours 1.76

No43%

ours 2.32

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricHouston DynamoMinnesota UnitedCombined
Goals scored0.330.831.16
Conceded0.831.672.50
Corners8.312.310.3
Cards0.71.72.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Houston DynamoMinnesota United

Houston Dynamo 47%, Minnesota United FC 28%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.

Houston Dynamo 47%Draw 25%Minnesota United FC 28%
1st half
40 · 38 · 22
2nd half
32 · 39 · 30
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Home or draw

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Houston Dynamo

  • homeSporting Kansas City0:2
  • homeCincinnati2:2
  • awaySan Jose Earthquakes0:1
  • homeReal Salt Lake2:1
  • awayCharlotte0:0

Minnesota United

  • awaySeattle Sounders1:3
  • homeLA Galaxy2:3
  • awaySt. Louis City2:4
  • homeDallas1:2
  • awayPortland Timbers4:5

Head to head

  • 06/26/25MLS1:3
  • 05/15/25MLS2:0
  • 07/14/24MLS1:1
  • 04/14/24MLS2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6New England Revolution27144945:3646
7San Jose Earthquakes27136849:3945
8Houston Dynamo27135934:3244
9Charlotte27127847:3843
10Chicago Fire26126846:3842
11Los Angeles28118943:3041
12Philadelphia Union271161054:4439
13Seattle Sounders27108935:3538
14Colorado Rapids271131338:3836
15LA Galaxy28991037:4436
16Orlando City271041348:6434
17New York City27891041:3633
18Cincinnati2689955:6433
19New York Red Bulls27961234:5133
20San Diego27881147:4732
21Portland Timbers27951348:5132
22Real Salt Lake27951340:4432
23Austin277101035:4731
24DC United26612834:4230
25Columbus Crew27851439:4329
26Minnesota United27781240:4929
27Toronto276111039:5129
28Atlanta United27761432:4527

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.