All matches

Banga Gargzdai — Siauliai, A Lyga

Lithuania, A Lyga

Banga Gargzdai
1.8WLLDD
—
Siauliai
1.1LDLLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
58%24%18%
Banga Gargzdai58%Draw24%Siauliai18%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Banga Gargzdai58%1.73—
XDraw24%4.10—
2Siauliai18%5.56—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.78

No44%

ours 2.28

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricBanga GargzdaiSiauliaiCombined
Goals scored0.500.170.67
Conceded1.001.332.33
Corners10.013.211.6
Cards1.51.42.9
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Banga GargzdaiSiauliai

FK Banga Gargždai 58%, FA Šiauliai 18%. The safest is “FK Banga Gargždai or draw” at 81%.

FK Banga Gargždai 58%Draw 24%FA Šiauliai 18%
1st half
44 · 36 · 20
2nd half
38 · 39 · 24
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Over 0.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Banga Gargzdai

  • homeDziugas Telsiai2:0
  • homeTransINVEST1:3
  • homePanevezys0:3
  • homeKauno Zalgiris0:0
  • awayHegelmann1:1

Siauliai

  • homeKauno Zalgiris0:2
  • homeHegelmann0:0
  • awayZalgiris0:1
  • homeSuduva Marijampole1:2
  • awayTransINVEST0:3

Head to head

  • 08/03/26A Lyga3:1
  • 05/30/26A Lyga1:1
  • 04/04/26A Lyga0:0
  • 10/22/25A Lyga3:1
  • 08/04/25A Lyga1:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3TransINVEST30156951:3551
4Zalgiris301461044:3648
5Banga Gargzdai30138941:2847
6Dziugas Telsiai301281039:4044
7Panevezys291051431:4435
8Hegelmann304151131:4827
9Siauliai31491827:5921
10Trakai1603135:423

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.