All matches

Porto — Estoril, Liga NOS

Portugal, Liga NOS

Porto
4.0WWLWW
—
Estoril
1.4LLDLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
78%16%
Porto78%Draw16%Estoril6%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Porto78%1.29—
XDraw16%6.13—
2Estoril6%16.84—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.86

No46%

ours 2.16

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricPortoEstorilCombined
Goals scored1.170.331.50
Conceded0.330.831.16
Corners10.59.09.8
Cards2.02.84.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

PortoEstoril

FC Porto 78%, GD Estoril Praia 6%. The safest is “FC Porto or draw” at 89%.

FC Porto 78%Draw 16%GD Estoril Praia 6%
1st half
53 · 35 · 12
2nd half
46 · 35 · 20
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Most corners: Home

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Porto

  • homeBenfica3:1
  • awayCasa Pia4:1
  • homeManchester City0:2
  • homeMoreirense2:1
  • awayAcademico de Viseu3:0

Estoril

  • homeCasa Pia1:2
  • awayBraga0:1
  • homeArouca0:0
  • awayBenfica1:2
  • homeRio Ave0:2

Head to head

  • 04/12/26Liga NOS3:1
  • 11/30/25Liga NOS1:0
  • 03/30/25Liga NOS2:1
  • 11/03/24Liga NOS4:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Porto770018:321
2Benfica751122:716
3Sporting CP743017:815
4Santa Clara743011:415
5Arouca732210:711
6Braga63217:511
7Academico de Viseu73229:911
8Estrela Amadora724114:1410
9Gil Vicente62225:58
10Alverca72239:118
11Maritimo72238:128
12Moreirense72238:148
13Famalicao71429:77
14Vitoria Guimaraes71245:85
15Nacional71157:154
16Rio Ave71155:154
17Casa Pia71153:164
18Estoril70253:102

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.