Both teams to score
Yes59%
ours 1.69
No41%
ours 2.45
All matches
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Nautico — Vila Nova, Serie B
Brazil, Serie B
Nautico
1.8DWLDL
Vila Nova
2.1WWWDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
47%25%28%
Nautico47%Draw25%Vila Nova28%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Nautico2.15—
XDraw3.95—
2Vila Nova3.56—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricNauticoVila NovaCombined
Goals scored1.331.172.50
Conceded1.670.171.84
Corners12.610.811.7
Cards1.82.64.4
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
NauticoVila Nova
Clube Náutico Capibaribe 47%, Vila Nova FC 28%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.
Clube Náutico Capibaribe 47%Draw 25%Vila Nova FC 28%
1st half
33 · 39 · 28
2nd half
41 · 36 · 23
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Over 0.5
70%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Nautico
- awayFortaleza1:1
- homeSC do Recife3:1
- awayCuiaba0:3
- homeOperario Ferroviario3:3
- awayAmerica Mineiro1:2
Vila Nova
- awayBotafogo-SP1:0
- homeLondrina2:0
- homeAmerica Mineiro1:0
- awayAvai1:1
- homeGoias2:0
Head to head
- 06/20/26Serie B3:4
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Vila Nova31176844:3157
Vila Nova31176844:31572
Juventude31168735:1956
Juventude31168735:19563
Gremio Novorizontino31159752:2754
Gremio Novorizontino31159752:27544
Fortaleza311411636:2753
Fortaleza311411636:27535
Criciuma31158833:2753
Criciuma31158833:27536
AC Goianiense311410739:2752
AC Goianiense311410739:27527
CRB311461146:4448
CRB311461146:44488
Operario Ferroviario31139943:4148
Operario Ferroviario31139943:41489
SC do Recife311211842:3347
SC do Recife311211842:334710
Cuiaba311113732:2546
Cuiaba311113732:254611
Sao Bernardo311291043:3245
Sao Bernardo311291043:324512
Athletic (MG)311012937:3542
Athletic (MG)311012937:354213Nautico311191139:3842
Nautico311191139:384214
Goias311261330:3942
Goias311261330:394215
Ceara311091234:3939
Ceara311091234:3939Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.