Both teams to score
Yes54%
ours 1.85
No46%
ours 2.17
All matches
—
Velez Sarsfield — San Lorenzo de Almagro, Primera División
Argentina, Primera División
Velez Sarsfield
2.2DWDWD
San Lorenzo de Almagro
2.2LLDWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
52%26%22%
Velez Sarsfield52%Draw26%San Lorenzo de Almagro22%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Velez Sarsfield1.94—
XDraw3.79—
2San Lorenzo de Almagro4.55—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricVelez SarsfieldSan Lorenzo de AlmagroCombined
Goals scored1.000.171.17
Conceded0.831.001.83
Corners9.011.710.3
Cards0.02.72.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Velez SarsfieldSan Lorenzo de Almagro
Club Atlético Vélez Sarsfield 52%, CA San Lorenzo de Almagro 22%. The safest is “Club Atlético Vélez Sarsfield or draw” at 78%.
Club Atlético Vélez Sarsfield 52%Draw 26%CA San Lorenzo de Almagro 22%
1st half
44 · 37 · 18
2nd half
33 · 41 · 27
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total cards: Over 3.5
70%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Velez Sarsfield
- homePlatense2:2
- homeTigre3:2
- awayNewell's Old Boys1:1
- homeEstudiantes1:0
- awayRiestra1:1
San Lorenzo de Almagro
- awayDefensa y Justicia0:3
- homeBoca Juniors0:2
- awayIndependiente1:1
- homeTalleres de Cordoba1:0
- awayInstituto Córdoba0:1
Head to head
- 04/20/26Primera División0:0
- 08/07/25Primera División0:1
- 02/08/25Primera División0:0
- 09/17/16Primera División1:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5
Boca Juniors281311441:2350
Boca Juniors281311441:23506
River Plate301541142:2949
River Plate301541142:29497Velez Sarsfield281213335:2449
Velez Sarsfield281213335:24498
Gimnasia La Plata291451036:3747
Gimnasia La Plata291451036:37479
Estudiantes281351032:1944
Estudiantes281351032:194410
Huracan291111731:2444
Huracan291111731:244411
Instituto Córdoba26134932:2443
Instituto Córdoba26134932:244312
Independiente28118936:3541
Independiente28118936:354113
Defensa y Justicia271010734:3240
Defensa y Justicia271010734:324014
Lanus27108928:2638
Lanus27108928:263815
Union de Santa Fe291071243:4237
Union de Santa Fe291071243:423716
Gimnasia Mendoza271061128:3436
Gimnasia Mendoza271061128:343617
Barracas Central2698922:2335
Barracas Central2698922:233518
Racing Club29981232:3435
Racing Club29981232:343519
Sarmiento261121330:3635
Sarmiento261121330:363520
Talleres de Cordoba28971228:3234
Talleres de Cordoba28971228:323421San Lorenzo de Almagro288101020:2734
San Lorenzo de Almagro288101020:273422
Tigre27711928:2632
Tigre27711928:263223
Newell's Old Boys27711926:3532
Newell's Old Boys27711926:3532Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.