Almirante Brown — San Miguel, Prim B Nacional

Argentina, Prim B NacionalOctober 11 at 06:30 PM

Almirante Brown

LLLDD

—

San Miguel

LLDDL

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

46%30%24%

Almirante BrownMarket 1.9746%DrawMarket 2.7730%San MiguelMarket 4.2224%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Almirante Brown46%51%2.171.97-4.7

XDraw30%36%3.372.77-6.4

2San Miguel24%24%4.124.22+0.6

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes44%

ours 2.26book 2.51

No56%

ours 1.79book 1.46

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Combos

Three kinds of combos — the most likely combination in each. The most likely of the three is highlighted. Every combination is in the tables below.

Combos come with a subscription: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.

Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

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70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches

Corners

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69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches

Cards

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69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches

This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Almirante BrownSan Miguel

Club Almirante Brown 46%, CA San Miguel 24%. The safest is “Club Almirante Brown or draw” at 76%.

Club Almirante Brown 46%Draw 30%CA San Miguel 24%

1st half

30 · 52 · 18

2nd half

40 · 36 · 24

Bookmakers: 1.97 · 2.77 · 4.22

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Under 5.5

72%

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAlmirante BrownSan MiguelCombined

Goals scored0.500.831.33

Conceded0.831.672.50

Corners9.57.88.7

Cards2.03.25.2

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.