All matches

Cagliari — Juventus, Serie A

Italy, Serie A

Cagliari
1.6WWWLW
—
Juventus
3.2WWLDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
23%23%54%
CagliariMarket 6.5423%DrawMarket 4.0923%JuventusMarket 1.6254%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Cagliari23%15%4.396.54+7.5
XDraw23%24%4.264.09-0.9
2Juventus54%62%1.861.62-8.1

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.86book 2.02

No46%

ours 2.17book 1.72

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCagliariJuventusCombined
Goals scored1.172.173.34
Conceded0.500.671.17
Corners10.59.710.1
Cards1.21.52.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

CagliariJuventus

Cagliari Calcio 23%, Juventus FC 54%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.

Cagliari Calcio 23%Draw 23%Juventus FC 54%
1st half
24 · 39 · 37
2nd half
25 · 36 · 38

Bookmakers: 6.54 · 4.09 · 1.62

Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

71%1.27
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Cagliari

  • awayUdinese1:0
  • awayAtalanta2:1
  • homeLecce1:0
  • homeInter Milan0:1
  • awayParma1:0

Juventus

  • homeAtalanta2:0
  • homeNEC Nijmegen5:0
  • awaySassuolo2:3
  • homeAC Milan1:1
  • homeParma2:0

Head to head

  • 01/17/26Serie A1:0
  • 11/29/25Serie A1:2
  • 02/23/25Serie A0:1
  • 10/06/24Serie A1:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2Inter Milan541015:813
3Lazio54108:313
4Cagliari54015:212
5AC Milan532010:411
6Frosinone53119:410
7Juventus53118:410
8Como53119:610
9Napoli52127:67

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.