Both teams to score
Yes49%
ours 2.02
No51%
ours 1.98
All matches
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San Lorenzo de Almagro — Riestra, Primera División
Argentina, Primera División
San Lorenzo de Almagro
2.2LLDWL
Riestra
1.7DDDDD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
44%28%27%
San Lorenzo de Almagro44%Draw28%Riestra27%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1San Lorenzo de Almagro2.25—
XDraw3.54—
2Riestra3.67—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricSan Lorenzo de AlmagroRiestraCombined
Goals scored0.330.500.83
Conceded1.170.501.67
Corners9.76.68.1
Cards2.72.65.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
San Lorenzo de AlmagroRiestra
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro 44%, Riestra 27%. The safest is “CA San Lorenzo de Almagro or draw” at 73%.
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro 44%Draw 28%Riestra 27%
1st half
31 · 44 · 25
2nd half
35 · 42 · 23
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Double chance: No draw
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
San Lorenzo de Almagro
- awayDefensa y Justicia0:3
- homeBoca Juniors0:2
- awayIndependiente1:1
- homeTalleres de Cordoba1:0
- awayInstituto Córdoba0:1
Riestra
- homeCentral Córdoba de Santiago del Estero1:1
- awayGimnasia Mendoza0:0
- awayPlatense1:1
- homeVelez Sarsfield1:1
- awayHuracan0:0
Head to head
- 03/25/26Primera División1:1
- 10/31/25Primera División1:0
- 04/20/25Primera División0:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
19
Sarmiento261121330:3635
Sarmiento261121330:363520
Talleres de Cordoba28971228:3234
Talleres de Cordoba28971228:323421San Lorenzo de Almagro288101020:2734
San Lorenzo de Almagro288101020:273422
Tigre27711928:2632
Tigre27711928:263223
Newell's Old Boys27711926:3532
Newell's Old Boys27711926:353224
Tucuman27691224:2927
Tucuman27691224:292725
Banfield26761328:3527
Banfield26761328:352726
Platense275111121:3226
Platense275111121:322627
Central Córdoba de Santiago del Estero27671419:3525
Central Córdoba de Santiago del Estero27671419:352528Riestra263131014:2022
Riestra263131014:202229
Aldosivi272101518:3616
Aldosivi272101518:361630
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto26251910:3711
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto26251910:3711Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.