Both teams to score
Yes57%
ours 1.74
No43%
ours 2.35
All matches
—
Lanus — Gimnasia Mendoza, Primera División
Argentina, Primera División
Lanus
2.2DWWLD
Gimnasia Mendoza
1.9LDLDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
49%26%24%
Lanus49%Draw26%Gimnasia Mendoza24%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Lanus2.02—
XDraw3.83—
2Gimnasia Mendoza4.10—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricLanusGimnasia MendozaCombined
Goals scored0.330.000.33
Conceded0.170.831.00
Corners8.58.78.6
Cards2.53.05.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
LanusGimnasia Mendoza
CA Lanús 49%, Gimnasia Mendoza 24%. The safest is “CA Lanús or draw” at 76%.
CA Lanús 49%Draw 26%Gimnasia Mendoza 24%
1st half
39 · 40 · 21
2nd half
37 · 37 · 26
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Second half total: Under 2.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Lanus
- awayNewell's Old Boys0:0
- homeEstudiantes2:1
- homeDefensa y Justicia1:0
- awayBoca Juniors0:1
- homeArgentinos Juniors1:1
Gimnasia Mendoza
- awayEstudiantes0:3
- homeRiestra0:0
- awayDefensa y Justicia0:2
- homeBoca Juniors2:2
- awayIndependiente3:0
Head to head
- 04/21/26Primera División0:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
12
Independiente28118936:3541
Independiente28118936:354113
Defensa y Justicia271010734:3240
Defensa y Justicia271010734:324014Lanus27108928:2638
Lanus27108928:263815
Union de Santa Fe291071243:4237
Union de Santa Fe291071243:423716Gimnasia Mendoza271061128:3436
Gimnasia Mendoza271061128:343617
Barracas Central2698922:2335
Barracas Central2698922:233518
Racing Club29981232:3435
Racing Club29981232:3435Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.