Both teams to score
Yes59%
ours 1.70
No41%
ours 2.43
All matches
—
Bolton Wanderers — Bristol City, Championship
England, Championship
Bolton Wanderers
1.8WWLLL
Bristol City
1.8WLLWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
45%26%29%
Bolton Wanderers45%Draw26%Bristol City29%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Bolton Wanderers2.21—
XDraw3.85—
2Bristol City3.47—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricBolton WanderersBristol CityCombined
Goals scored0.830.171.00
Conceded0.500.170.67
Corners9.012.010.5
Cards2.52.04.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Bolton WanderersBristol City
Bolton Wanderers FC 45%, Bristol City FC 29%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
Bolton Wanderers FC 45%Draw 26%Bristol City FC 29%
1st half
41 · 36 · 23
2nd half
31 · 39 · 30
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 11.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Bolton Wanderers
- awayNorwich City4:3
- homeCardiff City1:0
- homeWest Ham2:3
- awayMillwall0:4
- awaySheffield United2:3
Bristol City
- homeWatford1:0
- homeLincoln City0:1
- awaySouthampton1:4
- awayBurnley2:1
- awayPreston3:1
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7
QPR834110:713
QPR834110:7138
Stoke City841313:1213
Stoke City841313:12139Bristol City841311:1213
Bristol City841311:121310
Charlton Athletic83327:1012
Charlton Athletic83327:101211
Birmingham City825112:1111
Birmingham City825112:111112
Millwall832315:1511
Millwall832315:151113
Lincoln City83237:811
Lincoln City83237:81114
Wrexham82429:1210
Wrexham82429:121015Bolton Wanderers831411:1510
Bolton Wanderers831411:151016
Blackburn Rovers823312:129
Blackburn Rovers823312:12917
Norwich City830516:179
Norwich City830516:179Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.