All matches

Athletic (MG) — Ceara, Serie B

Brazil, Serie B

Athletic (MG)
1.7LDDWL
—
Ceara
1.7WDWDL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
46%26%28%
Athletic (MG)46%Draw26%Ceara28%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Athletic (MG)46%2.17—
XDraw26%3.92—
2Ceara28%3.51—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.72

No42%

ours 2.39

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAthletic (MG)CearaCombined
Goals scored0.500.501.00
Conceded0.670.331.00
Corners10.013.011.5
Cards1.02.53.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Athletic (MG)Ceara

Athletic Club (Minas Gerais) 46%, Ceará SC 28%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.

Athletic Club (Minas Gerais) 46%Draw 26%Ceará SC 28%
1st half
41 · 39 · 20
2nd half
30 · 37 · 33
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 7.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Athletic (MG)

  • homeSC do Recife1:2
  • awayFortaleza2:2
  • homeBotafogo-SP1:1
  • awayJuventude2:0
  • awayCuiaba0:3

Ceara

  • awayAvai1:0
  • awayOperario Ferroviario2:2
  • homeGremio Novorizontino2:1
  • awayFortaleza1:1
  • awayAC Goianiense1:2

Head to head

  • 07/13/26Serie B0:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
10Cuiaba311113732:2546
11Sao Bernardo311291043:3245
12Athletic (MG)311012937:3542
13Nautico311191139:3842
14Goias311261330:3942
15Ceara311091234:3939
16Botafogo-SP31981434:3735
17Avai31861730:4230

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.