All matches

Real Garcilaso — Sporting Cristal, Primera División

Peru, Primera División

Real Garcilaso
2.9WLWWL
—
Sporting Cristal
2.7WWWLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
50%25%26%
Real Garcilaso50%Draw25%Sporting Cristal26%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Real Garcilaso50%2.01—
XDraw25%4.07—
2Sporting Cristal26%3.91—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes61%

ours 1.64

No39%

ours 2.56

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricReal GarcilasoSporting CristalCombined
Goals scored1.001.672.67
Conceded0.500.501.00
Corners8.813.811.3
Cards1.52.03.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Real GarcilasoSporting Cristal

Asociación Civil Real Atlético Garcilaso 50%, Club Sporting Cristal SAC 26%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.

Asociación Civil Real Atlético Garcilaso 50%Draw 25%Club Sporting Cristal SAC 26%
1st half
39 · 36 · 25
2nd half
32 · 39 · 30
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 7.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Real Garcilaso

  • awayCajamarca2:1
  • homeMelgar0:1
  • homeUCV Moquegua2:0
  • awayCienciano2:1
  • awayGarcilaso1:4

Sporting Cristal

  • homeAtletico Grau3:1
  • awayUCV Moquegua2:1
  • homeLos Chankas5:0
  • awaySport Boys0:1
  • awayAlianza Atletico Sullana1:3

Head to head

  • 05/03/26Primera División2:2
  • 12/14/25Primera División2:0
  • 12/11/25Primera División0:1
  • 09/14/25Primera División3:2
  • 04/13/25Primera División0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3Garcilaso27146739:2448
4Melgar27137745:2946
5Real Garcilaso271431040:3845
6Los Chankas27126936:4542
7Cienciano271251046:4041
8Alianza Atletico Sullana27117940:3540
9Sporting Cristal271151148:4038
10Sport Boys27108929:2638
11Sport Huancayo271051237:4435

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.