Both teams to score
Yes56%
ours 1.80
No44%
ours 2.25
All matches
—
Al Nassr — Neom, Professional League
Saudi Arabia, Professional League
Al Nassr
3.7DWLWW
Neom
2.0WWWLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
68%21%12%
Al Nassr68%Draw21%Neom12%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Al Nassr1.47—
XDraw4.87—
2Neom8.61—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricAl NassrNeomCombined
Goals scored1.001.502.50
Conceded0.830.501.33
Corners12.59.511.0
Cards2.32.04.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Al NassrNeom
Al Nassr FC 68%, Neom SC 12%. The safest is “Al Nassr FC or draw” at 85%.
Al Nassr FC 68%Draw 21%Neom SC 12%
1st half
42 · 40 · 19
2nd half
46 · 35 · 19
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total cards: Under 4.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Al Nassr
- awayAl Khaleej1:1
- homeAbha2:1
- awayAl Ittihad1:2
- homeAl Taawon2:1
- awayAl Ittifaq3:2
Neom
- homeAl Fateh4:2
- awayAl Hilal2:0
- homeAl Khaleej3:0
- awayAl Riyadh0:1
- homeAl Qadisiyah0:2
Head to head
- 03/07/26Professional League1:0
- 11/08/25Professional League3:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
Al Hilal760123:518
Al Hilal760123:5182
Al Ittihad752012:617
Al Ittihad752012:6173Al Nassr751116:716
Al Nassr751116:7164
Al Qadisiyah751116:816
Al Qadisiyah751116:8165Neom750213:615
Neom750213:6156
Al Ahli Jeddah740316:1012
Al Ahli Jeddah740316:10127
Al Kholood733112:1012
Al Kholood733112:1012Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.