Both teams to score
Yes52%
ours 1.91book 1.73
No48%
ours 2.10book 2.00
All matches
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Ceuta — Sabadell, Segunda División
Spain, Segunda División
Ceuta
1.7DWDLL
Sabadell
2.0DDWLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
35%26%39%
CeutaMarket 3.4835%DrawMarket 3.5126%SabadellMarket 2.1339%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Ceuta2.883.48+6.1
XDraw3.823.51-2.3
2Sabadell2.562.13-8.0
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricCeutaSabadellCombined
Goals scored1.001.332.33
Conceded1.831.002.83
Corners8.88.38.6
Cards2.52.75.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
CeutaSabadell
Agrupación Deportiva Ceuta FC 35%, CE Sabadell FC 39%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
Agrupación Deportiva Ceuta FC 35%Draw 26%CE Sabadell FC 39%
1st half
30 · 39 · 31
2nd half
25 · 43 · 32
Bookmakers: 3.48 · 3.51 · 2.13
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Over 1.5
68%1.25
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Ceuta
- awayCastellon1:1
- homeReal Sociedad II3:1
- homeReal Valladolid1:1
- awayBurgos1:3
- homeCelta Vigo II0:2
Sabadell
- homeAndorra0:0
- awayCelta Vigo II1:1
- homeReal Oviedo3:1
- awayMallorca0:2
- homeCordoba3:2
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5
Mallorca84228:314
Mallorca84228:3146
Burgos842212:914
Burgos842212:9147Sabadell83418:613
Sabadell83418:6138
Sporting Gijon84138:813
Sporting Gijon84138:8139
Granada832313:1311
Granada832313:131110
Real Oviedo83238:811
Real Oviedo83238:81111
Las Palmas832312:1311
Las Palmas832312:131112
Tenerife832310:1211
Tenerife832310:121113
Leganes83236:1111
Leganes83236:111114
Real Valladolid82338:119
Real Valladolid82338:11915
Cordoba830513:189
Cordoba830513:18916
Real Sociedad II822411:138
Real Sociedad II822411:13817
Eldense82248:108
Eldense82248:10818
Celta Vigo II822410:148
Celta Vigo II822410:14819
Cadiz814311:107
Cadiz814311:10720
Andorra821512:157
Andorra821512:15721Ceuta81257:185
Ceuta81257:18522
Albacete80175:151
Albacete80175:151Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.