Both teams to score
Yes58%
ours 1.73
No42%
ours 2.38
All matches
—
Bournemouth — Leeds United, Premier League
England, Premier League
Bournemouth
2.5LWDDD
Leeds United
2.9DWDDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
48%26%26%
Bournemouth48%Draw26%Leeds United26%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Bournemouth2.08—
XDraw3.83—
2Leeds United3.87—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricBournemouthLeeds UnitedCombined
Goals scored0.000.830.83
Conceded0.170.330.50
Corners6.010.08.0
Cards1.02.03.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
BournemouthLeeds United
AFC Bournemouth 48%, Leeds United FC 26%. The safest is “AFC Bournemouth or draw” at 76%.
AFC Bournemouth 48%Draw 26%Leeds United FC 26%
1st half
37 · 39 · 24
2nd half
39 · 36 · 25
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Under 1.5
69%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Bournemouth
- homeLiverpool0:1
- awayReal Sociedad2:1
- homeBrentford2:2
- awayNewcastle United2:2
- homeEverton1:1
Leeds United
- homeCrystal Palace0:0
- homeNewcastle United4:1
- awayBrighton1:1
- homeBrentford1:1
- awayNottingham Forest1:0
Head to head
- 04/22/26Premier League2:2
- 09/27/25Premier League2:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3
Brighton531116:510
Brighton531116:5104
Brentford523010:49
Brentford523010:495Leeds United52307:39
Leeds United52307:396
Liverpool52307:49
Liverpool52307:497
Everton52306:39
Everton52306:398
Hull City52216:48
Hull City52216:489
Newcastle United52219:98
Newcastle United52219:9810
Chelsea521210:127
Chelsea521210:12711
Ipswich Town52037:116
Ipswich Town52037:11612
Manchester United51228:85
Manchester United51228:8513
Nottingham Forest51224:55
Nottingham Forest51224:5514
Sunderland51136:104
Sunderland51136:10415
Crystal Palace51136:114
Crystal Palace51136:11416
Aston Villa51134:94
Aston Villa51134:9417Bournemouth50326:83
Bournemouth50326:8318
Coventry City51041:103
Coventry City51041:10319
Fulham50235:82
Fulham50235:82Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.