All matches

Zaglebie Lubin — Jagiellonia, Ekstraklasa

Poland, Ekstraklasa

Zaglebie Lubin
1.8LWWDD
—
Jagiellonia
2.8LLLWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
41%26%34%
Zaglebie Lubin41%Draw26%Jagiellonia34%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Zaglebie Lubin41%2.47—
XDraw26%3.89—
2Jagiellonia34%2.96—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes60%

ours 1.68

No40%

ours 2.48

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricZaglebie LubinJagielloniaCombined
Goals scored1.000.671.67
Conceded1.001.332.33
Corners8.610.89.7
Cards3.41.34.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Zaglebie LubinJagiellonia

Zagłębie Lubin 41%, SSA Jagiellonia Białystok 34%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.

Zagłębie Lubin 41%Draw 26%SSA Jagiellonia Białystok 34%
1st half
30 · 37 · 33
2nd half
34 · 39 · 26
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 7.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Zaglebie Lubin

  • homeWisla Plock0:2
  • awayRakow3:2
  • homeGKS Katowice2:1
  • awayWieczysta Krakow1:1
  • homePogon Szczecin0:0

Jagiellonia

  • homeLegia Warsaw1:3
  • awayOlympiakos1:2
  • awayWisla Krakow0:2
  • homeSlask Wroclaw2:1
  • awayLech Poznan1:2

Head to head

  • 05/23/26Ekstraklasa0:1
  • 11/30/25Ekstraklasa0:0
  • 04/21/25Ekstraklasa3:1
  • 10/19/24Ekstraklasa1:3

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5Pogon Szczecin843112:615
6Korona Kielce943212:1015
7Zaglebie Lubin943211:1015
8Piast Gliwice941416:1513
9GKS Katowice840416:1312
10Jagiellonia840412:1312
11Wisla Plock83239:1211
12Widzew Lodz916213:139

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.