All matches

Zaglebie Lubin — Korona Kielce, Ekstraklasa

Poland, Ekstraklasa

Zaglebie Lubin
1.8LWWDD
—
Korona Kielce
2.0WLWDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
44%26%30%
Zaglebie Lubin44%Draw26%Korona Kielce30%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Zaglebie Lubin44%2.29—
XDraw26%3.82—
2Korona Kielce30%3.32—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes57%

ours 1.76

No43%

ours 2.32

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricZaglebie LubinKorona KielceCombined
Goals scored0.830.831.66
Conceded0.830.831.66
Corners8.310.09.2
Cards3.71.35.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Zaglebie LubinKorona Kielce

Zagłębie Lubin 44%, MKS Korona Kielce 30%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.

Zagłębie Lubin 44%Draw 26%MKS Korona Kielce 30%
1st half
30 · 39 · 30
2nd half
36 · 40 · 25
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Zaglebie Lubin

  • homeWisla Plock0:2
  • awayRakow3:2
  • homeGKS Katowice2:1
  • awayWieczysta Krakow1:1
  • homePogon Szczecin0:0

Korona Kielce

  • homeRakow3:2
  • homeGornik Zabrze0:2
  • awaySlask Wroclaw2:1
  • homeWisla Krakow1:1
  • awayWisla Plock2:0

Head to head

  • 02/06/26Ekstraklasa2:1
  • 08/01/25Ekstraklasa1:1
  • 03/16/25Ekstraklasa1:1
  • 09/15/24Ekstraklasa0:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4Wisla Krakow952217:1217
5Pogon Szczecin843112:615
6Korona Kielce943212:1015
7Zaglebie Lubin943211:1015
8Piast Gliwice941416:1513
9GKS Katowice840416:1312

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.