All matches

Western Sydney Wanderers — Auckland, A-League

Australia, A-League

Western Sydney Wanderers
1.6LLLLL
—
Auckland
2.6WWDDD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
31%24%45%
Western Sydney Wanderers31%Draw24%Auckland45%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Western Sydney Wanderers31%3.25—
XDraw24%4.21—
2Auckland45%2.20—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes59%

ours 1.70

No41%

ours 2.44

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricWestern Sydney WanderersAucklandCombined
Goals scored0.501.331.83
Conceded2.170.672.84
Corners10.69.810.2
Cards1.22.63.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Western Sydney WanderersAuckland

Western Sydney Wanderers FC 31%, Auckland FC 45%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.

Western Sydney Wanderers FC 31%Draw 24%Auckland FC 45%
1st half
34 · 35 · 31
2nd half
30 · 37 · 34
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 11.5

67%
High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Form and context

Western Sydney Wanderers

  • homeMelbourne Victory0:2
  • awayWellington Phoenix1:2
  • homeSydney0:2
  • awayMelbourne City0:3
  • homeAdelaide United2:4

Auckland

  • homeSydney1:0
  • awayAdelaide United3:0
  • homeAdelaide United1:1
  • homeMelbourne City1:1
  • awaySydney2:2

Head to head

  • 12/19/25A-League0:2
  • 10/25/25A-League0:1
  • 04/05/25A-League1:1
  • 01/26/25A-League0:1

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.