All matches

Watford — Burnley, Championship

England, Championship

Watford
1.3LLWLL
—
Burnley
1.6DLDLD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
31%26%43%
WatfordMarket 2.9731%DrawMarket 3.4626%BurnleyMarket 2.2543%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Watford31%34%3.202.97-2.4
XDraw26%29%3.873.46-3.1
2Burnley43%44%2.332.25-1.5

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.82book 1.61

No45%

ours 2.22book 2.18

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricWatfordBurnleyCombined
Goals scored0.671.001.67
Conceded1.332.003.33
Corners9.59.09.3
Cards2.82.55.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

WatfordBurnley

Watford FC 31%, Burnley FC 43%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.

Watford FC 31%Draw 26%Burnley FC 43%
1st half
32 · 37 · 31
2nd half
29 · 42 · 29

Bookmakers: 2.97 · 3.46 · 2.25

Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 7.5

68%1.15
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Watford

  • awayBristol City0:1
  • homeStoke City1:2
  • homePreston2:1
  • awayWest Bromwich0:1
  • awaySwansea City0:2

Burnley

  • homeDerby County1:1
  • awaySwansea City1:3
  • awayWrexham1:1
  • homeBristol City1:2
  • homeMiddlesbrough1:1

Head to head

  • 04/18/25Championship1:2
  • 12/21/24Championship1:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
18Sheffield United82339:119
19Portsmouth72239:108
20Watford82247:108
21Cardiff City814310:127
22Derby County81257:145
23Preston81168:154
24Burnley80449:174

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.