Both teams to score
Yes59%
ours 1.71
No41%
ours 2.42
All matches
—
Waterford — Drogheda United, Premier Division
Republic of Ireland, Premier Division
Waterford
1.4LDDWD
Drogheda United
1.5LWWLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
48%27%25%
Waterford48%Draw27%Drogheda United25%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Waterford2.08—
XDraw3.72—
2Drogheda United3.99—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricWaterfordDrogheda UnitedCombined
Goals scored1.171.172.34
Conceded1.001.002.00
Corners13.810.812.3
Cards1.50.82.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
WaterfordDrogheda United
Waterford FC 48%, Drogheda United FC 25%. The safest is “Waterford FC or draw” at 75%.
Waterford FC 48%Draw 27%Drogheda United FC 25%
1st half
42 · 33 · 25
2nd half
34 · 41 · 25
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total cards: Over 2.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Waterford
- awayShamrock Rovers2:3
- homeDerry City2:2
- homeDundalk1:1
- awaySt Patrick's2:0
- awaySligo Rovers0:0
Drogheda United
- awayBohemians1:2
- awayShelbourne2:1
- homeSligo Rovers2:0
- homeDundalk2:3
- homeSt Patrick's0:2
Head to head
- 05/29/26Premier Division3:3
- 05/18/26Premier Division2:1
- 02/13/26Premier Division0:2
- 10/05/25Premier Division2:0
- 08/08/25Premier Division0:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6
Shelbourne329131042:4540
Shelbourne329131042:45407
Galway United329111242:4838
Galway United329111242:48388Waterford327131244:5434
Waterford327131244:54349Drogheda United328101438:5134
Drogheda United328101438:513410
Sligo Rovers32581924:5423
Sligo Rovers32581924:5423Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.