Both teams to score
Yes45%
Fair price 2.22
No55%
Fair price 1.82
All matches
Wales vs Portugal prediction
VARStats prediction for 17 November: Portugal 53%, draw 29%, Wales 18%. Below — goals, corners, cards, team form and the referee.
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
18%29%53%
Wales18%Draw29%Portugal53%
Wales: last match 3 days ago · short rest
Portugal: last match 3 days ago · short rest
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model and prices
Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelPriceΔ
1Wales5.56—
XDraw3.46—
2Portugal1.88—
our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed
Quick predictions
The three most common questions — our probability next to the price.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair price and the comparison with the prices.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals prediction
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 4493 matches
Corners prediction
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 4478 matches
Cards prediction
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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 4463 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. This block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
WalesPortugal
Wales 18%, Portugal 53%. The safest is “Portugal or draw” at 82%.
Wales 18%Draw 29%Portugal 53%
1st half
21 · 41 · 37
2nd half
18 · 42 · 40
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total shots on target: Under 9.5
70%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricWalesPortugalCombined
Goals scored0.601.802.40
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Wales- One win in the last 5 matches0:1, 2:1, 0:2, 0:1, 1:1
- 2 goals or fewer in 4 of the last 5
- 2.8 goals per game at home8 matches
Portugal- 4 wins in a row2:1, 4:2, 2:1, 1:0, 0:1
- 2.3 goals per game away6 matches
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Wales
- homeDenmark0:1
- homeNorway2:1
- awayDenmark0:2
- awayPortugal0:1
- homeBosnia and Herzegovina1:1
Portugal
- homeNorway2:1
- awayDenmark4:2
- awayNorway2:1
- homeWales1:0
- homeSpain0:1
Head to head
- 09/24/26UEFA Nations League0:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
Full breakdown
Every forecast type the model computes. Our probability on the left, our fair price and the current price on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.