Both teams to score
Yes54%
ours 1.85
No46%
ours 2.17
All matches
—
Zalgiris — Trakai, A Lyga
Lithuania, A Lyga
Zalgiris
2.8LWDWL
Trakai
0.6LLLLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
72%19%
Zalgiris72%Draw19%Trakai9%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Zalgiris1.39—
XDraw5.17—
2Trakai11.56—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricZalgirisTrakaiCombined
Goals scored0.500.000.50
Conceded0.830.000.83
Corners7.3——
Cards1.7——
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
ZalgirisTrakai
VMFD Žalgiris Vilnius 72%, FK Trakai 9%. The safest is “VMFD Žalgiris Vilnius or draw” at 91%.
VMFD Žalgiris Vilnius 72%Draw 19%FK Trakai 9%
1st half
56 · 31 · 13
2nd half
45 · 36 · 18
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Most corners: Home
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Zalgiris
- awayTransINVEST0:3
- homeKauno Zalgiris3:2
- awaySuduva Marijampole0:0
- homeSiauliai1:0
- awayPanevezys0:2
Trakai
- awayZalgiris2:3
- homeSuduva Marijampole0:3
- awaySiauliai0:2
- awayDziugas Telsiai0:1
- homeBanga Gargzdai0:4
Head to head
- 06/12/26A Lyga3:2
- 04/10/26A Lyga0:0
- 09/19/25A Lyga2:0
- 08/17/25A Lyga2:1
- 05/09/25A Lyga2:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2
Suduva Marijampole301511447:2556
Suduva Marijampole301511447:25563
TransINVEST30156951:3551
TransINVEST30156951:35514Zalgiris301461044:3648
Zalgiris301461044:36485
Banga Gargzdai30138941:2847
Banga Gargzdai30138941:28476
Dziugas Telsiai301281039:4044
Dziugas Telsiai301281039:40447
Panevezys291051431:4435
Panevezys291051431:44358
Hegelmann304151131:4827
Hegelmann304151131:48279
Siauliai31491827:5921
Siauliai31491827:592110Trakai1603135:423
Trakai1603135:423Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.