All matches

Vancouver Whitecaps — San Diego, MLS

USA, MLS

Vancouver Whitecaps
2.7DWLWL
—
San Diego
2.1DDLLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
58%23%19%
Vancouver Whitecaps58%Draw23%San Diego19%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Vancouver Whitecaps58%1.71—
XDraw23%4.34—
2San Diego19%5.39—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.72

No42%

ours 2.38

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricVancouver WhitecapsSan DiegoCombined
Goals scored0.500.831.33
Conceded0.500.831.33
Corners17.05.011.0
Cards0.00.50.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Vancouver WhitecapsSan Diego

Vancouver Whitecaps FC 58%, San Diego FC 19%. The safest is “Vancouver Whitecaps FC or draw” at 83%.

Vancouver Whitecaps FC 58%Draw 23%San Diego FC 19%
1st half
50 · 32 · 18
2nd half
39 · 38 · 23
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 10.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Vancouver Whitecaps

  • homeDC United3:3
  • awayReal Salt Lake3:0
  • homeAustin1:2
  • homeLA Galaxy3:0
  • homeSt. Louis City1:3

San Diego

  • awayAustin3:3
  • awayInter Miami2:2
  • homePhiladelphia Union0:5
  • homeSan Jose Earthquakes2:3
  • awayOrlando City0:1

Head to head

  • 05/24/26MLS4:2
  • 11/30/25MLS3:1
  • 07/20/25MLS1:1
  • 06/26/25MLS3:5

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Nashville SC27186355:2160
2Vancouver Whitecaps26155659:2650
3St. Louis City27138648:3647
4Dallas27138650:4247
5Inter Miami271210564:5046
6New England Revolution27144945:3646
7San Jose Earthquakes27136849:3945
8Houston Dynamo27135934:3244
9Charlotte27127847:3843
10Chicago Fire26126846:3842
11Los Angeles28118943:3041
12Philadelphia Union271161054:4439
13Seattle Sounders27108935:3538
14Colorado Rapids271131338:3836
15LA Galaxy28991037:4436
16Orlando City271041348:6434
17New York City27891041:3633
18Cincinnati2689955:6433
19New York Red Bulls27961234:5133
20San Diego27881147:4732
21Portland Timbers27951348:5132
22Real Salt Lake27951340:4432

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.