Both teams to score
Yes58%
ours 1.73
No42%
ours 2.36
All matches
—
VPS — HJK, Veikkausliiga
Finland, Veikkausliiga
VPS
1.7LLWLW
HJK
2.4DDWWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
33%25%42%
VPS33%Draw25%HJK42%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1VPS3.02—
XDraw4.04—
2HJK2.37—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricVPSHJKCombined
Goals scored0.000.170.17
Conceded0.330.170.50
Corners14.011.012.5
Cards5.00.05.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
VPSHJK
Vaasan Palloseura 33%, Helsingin Jalkapalloklubi 42%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
Vaasan Palloseura 33%Draw 25%Helsingin Jalkapalloklubi 42%
1st half
33 · 37 · 31
2nd half
28 · 38 · 34
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 12.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
VPS
- homeKuPS0:2
- awayInter Turku0:1
- homeOulu1:0
- homeLahti0:1
- awayIlves1:0
HJK
- awayGnistan1:1
- awayKuPS0:0
- homeInter Turku2:1
- awayIlves2:1
- homeGnistan2:3
Head to head
- 07/18/26Veikkausliiga1:2
- 05/22/26Veikkausliiga2:1
- 07/05/25Veikkausliiga0:2
- 04/26/25Veikkausliiga1:3
- 09/20/24Veikkausliiga1:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
KuPS25139341:2448
KuPS25139341:24482
Inter Turku25139332:1848
Inter Turku25139332:18483HJK25126739:2942
HJK25126739:29424
Gnistan25118640:3241
Gnistan25118640:32415
Lahti25106930:2436
Lahti25106930:24366VPS25106930:2536
VPS25106930:25367
Ilves251041142:3834
Ilves251041142:38348
Oulu251041126:2934
Oulu251041126:2934Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.