Both teams to score
Yes61%
ours 1.63
No39%
ours 2.59
All matches
—
Sassuolo — Fiorentina, Serie A
Italy, Serie A
Sassuolo
1.8LWDWL
Fiorentina
2.2DWLLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
43%26%31%
Sassuolo43%Draw26%Fiorentina31%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Sassuolo2.32—
XDraw3.92—
2Fiorentina3.18—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricSassuoloFiorentinaCombined
Goals scored0.670.831.50
Conceded0.670.501.17
Corners12.57.510.0
Cards1.52.03.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
SassuoloFiorentina
US Sassuolo Calcio 43%, ACF Fiorentina 31%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.
US Sassuolo Calcio 43%Draw 26%ACF Fiorentina 31%
1st half
34 · 37 · 30
2nd half
37 · 35 · 28
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 10.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Sassuolo
- awayMonza1:2
- homeJuventus3:2
- awayBologna2:2
- homeTorino2:1
- awayAtalanta1:2
Fiorentina
- homeNapoli1:1
- awayVenezia4:2
- homeTorino1:2
- homeFrosinone0:3
- awayRoma0:4
Head to head
- 04/26/26Serie A0:0
- 12/06/25Serie A3:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
8
Como53119:610
Como53119:6109
Napoli52127:67
Napoli52127:6710Sassuolo52129:97
Sassuolo52129:9711
Atalanta52035:76
Atalanta52035:7612
Lecce52035:106
Lecce52035:10613
Udinese51138:114
Udinese51138:11414
Torino51135:84
Torino51135:8415
Parma51134:74
Parma51134:7416
Monza51138:124
Monza51138:12417Fiorentina51136:124
Fiorentina51136:12418
Bologna50233:62
Bologna50233:6219
Genoa50143:101
Genoa50143:101Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.