Both teams to score
Yes52%
ours 1.91
No48%
ours 2.10
All matches
—
Mondorf — Hostert, National Division
Luxembourg, National Division
Mondorf
2.9LLWWW
Hostert
1.7DDWLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
63%21%16%
Mondorf63%Draw21%Hostert16%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Mondorf1.59—
XDraw4.79—
2Hostert6.13—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricMondorfHostertCombined
Goals scored0.670.501.17
Conceded0.830.171.00
Corners9.77.08.3
Cards0.00.00.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
MondorfHostert
US Mondorf-les-Bains 63%, US Hostert 16%. The safest is “US Mondorf-les-Bains or draw” at 79%.
US Mondorf-les-Bains 63%Draw 21%US Hostert 16%
1st half
43 · 38 · 20
2nd half
37 · 39 · 24
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Over 1.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Mondorf
- awayResidence Walferdange1:2
- homeUNA Strassen1:2
- awayAtert Bissen2:1
- homeProgres Niederkorn2:1
- awayJeunesse Esch3:1
Hostert
- homeJeunesse Esch1:1
- homeDudelange0:0
- awayVictoria Rosport2:0
- homeDifferdange0:2
- awaySwift Hesperange2:0
Head to head
- 04/26/26National Division4:0
- 11/02/25National Division1:2
- 04/19/25National Division1:2
- 10/27/24National Division3:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
UNA Strassen880017:224
UNA Strassen880017:2242
Differdange870118:621
Differdange870118:6213Mondorf860216:1118
Mondorf860216:11184
Racing Union852122:717
Racing Union852122:7175
Progres Niederkorn851213:516
Progres Niederkorn851213:5166
Kaerjeng 97850323:1515
Kaerjeng 97850323:15157
Atert Bissen850318:1115
Atert Bissen850318:11158
Residence Walferdange850316:1015
Residence Walferdange850316:10159Hostert832314:1111
Hostert832314:111110
Jeunesse Esch821514:177
Jeunesse Esch821514:17711
Dudelange82158:157
Dudelange82158:157Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.