All matches

Union Cocle — Herrera, LPF

Panama, LPF

Union Cocle
1.7LLLLL
—
Herrera
0.6WLLLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
53%28%19%
Union Cocle53%Draw28%Herrera19%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Union Cocle53%1.89—
XDraw28%3.57—
2Herrera19%5.21—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.90

No47%

ours 2.11

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricUnion CocleHerreraCombined
Goals scored0.831.001.83
Conceded2.332.835.16
Corners8.28.28.2
Cards1.42.53.9
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Union CocleHerrera

Unión Coclé FC 53%, Herrera FC 19%. The safest is “Unión Coclé FC or draw” at 79%.

Unión Coclé FC 53%Draw 28%Herrera FC 19%
1st half
41 · 41 · 18
2nd half
35 · 40 · 25
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 1.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Union Cocle

  • awaySporting San Miguelito1:3
  • homePlaza Amador1:2
  • awayUMECIT0:1
  • awayArabe Unido1:4
  • homeTauro0:2

Herrera

  • homeAlianza1:0
  • awayArabe Unido1:2
  • homeTauro0:6
  • homeUMECIT1:3
  • awayPlaza Amador1:4

Head to head

  • 07/26/26LPF0:1
  • 05/02/26LPF4:0
  • 02/12/26LPF1:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
9Universitario1125410:1211
10Sporting San Miguelito1125411:1411
11Herrera1123610:239
12Union Cocle111288:215

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.