All matches

Leiria — Academica, LigaPro

Portugal, LigaPro

Leiria
2.1DWWWL
—
Academica
1.9LLLWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
46%24%30%
LeiriaMarket 1.8846%DrawMarket 3.4024%AcademicaMarket 3.9430%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Leiria46%53%2.181.88-7.4
XDraw24%29%4.113.40-5.1
2Academica30%25%3.353.94+4.4

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes59%

ours 1.68book 1.72

No41%

ours 2.47book 2.01

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricLeiriaAcademicaCombined
Goals scored1.671.333.00
Conceded1.171.672.84
Corners9.310.09.7
Cards1.32.84.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

LeiriaAcademica

UD Leiria 46%, Associação Académica de Coimbra OAF 30%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.

UD Leiria 46%Draw 24%Associação Académica de Coimbra OAF 30%
1st half
40 · 35 · 25
2nd half
33 · 36 · 31

Bookmakers: 1.88 · 3.40 · 3.94

Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Over 3.5

69%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Leiria

  • awayAmarante2:2
  • homePortimonense1:0
  • homeTondela2:0
  • awayLeixoes4:2
  • homeBenfica II1:2

Academica

  • homeBenfica II0:3
  • awayPenafiel1:4
  • homeLusitania Lourosa0:2
  • awayTondela2:0
  • homeFeirense1:0

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4Farense632111:511
5Vizela63217:411
6Leiria631210:710
7Leixoes63128:610
8Benfica II63127:510
9Tondela63037:69
10Academica63038:109
11Portimonense62134:67
12AVS61326:66

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.