Both teams to score
Yes58%
ours 1.73
No42%
ours 2.36
All matches
—
Almeria — Real Oviedo, Segunda División
Spain, Segunda División
Almeria
2.6WWWWW
Real Oviedo
1.7LWLWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
51%25%24%
Almeria51%Draw25%Real Oviedo24%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Almeria1.96—
XDraw4.02—
2Real Oviedo4.13—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricAlmeriaReal OviedoCombined
Goals scored1.171.172.34
Conceded0.171.171.34
Corners8.88.38.5
Cards2.53.05.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
AlmeriaReal Oviedo
UD Almería 51%, Real Oviedo 24%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
UD Almería 51%Draw 25%Real Oviedo 24%
1st half
42 · 37 · 20
2nd half
33 · 39 · 28
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Over 0.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Almeria
- homeBurgos2:1
- awayMallorca1:0
- homeCelta Vigo II2:0
- awayCordoba2:0
- homeCadiz3:2
Real Oviedo
- awayEldense1:4
- homeSporting Gijon2:0
- awaySabadell1:3
- awayReal Valladolid3:0
- homeBurgos0:0
Head to head
- 06/11/25Segunda División1:1
- 06/07/25Segunda División1:2
- 02/01/25Segunda División1:1
- 10/13/24Segunda División2:3
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
Eibar870118:721
Eibar870118:7212
Castellon862015:320
Castellon862015:3203Almeria860213:518
Almeria860213:5184
Girona842214:814
Girona842214:8145
Mallorca84228:314
Mallorca84228:3146
Burgos842212:914
Burgos842212:9147
Sabadell83418:613
Sabadell83418:6138
Sporting Gijon84138:813
Sporting Gijon84138:8139
Granada832313:1311
Granada832313:131110Real Oviedo83238:811
Real Oviedo83238:81111
Las Palmas832312:1311
Las Palmas832312:131112
Tenerife832310:1211
Tenerife832310:1211Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.