All matches

Almeria — Leganes, Segunda División

Spain, Segunda División

Almeria
2.6WWWWW
—
Leganes
1.4LLWLD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
63%22%15%
AlmeriaMarket 1.6663%DrawMarket 4.2822%LeganesMarket 4.8515%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Almeria63%60%1.581.66+3.3
XDraw22%23%4.604.28-1.6
2Leganes15%21%6.774.85-5.8

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.73book 1.61

No42%

ours 2.38book 2.17

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Sign up

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Sign up

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAlmeriaLeganesCombined
Goals scored1.670.672.34
Conceded0.671.672.34
Corners8.28.08.1
Cards2.32.75.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freeSign in

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

AlmeriaLeganes

UD Almería 63%, CD Leganés 15%. The safest is “UD Almería or draw” at 82%.

UD Almería 63%Draw 22%CD Leganés 15%
1st half
45 · 38 · 18
2nd half
41 · 37 · 23

Bookmakers: 1.66 · 4.28 · 4.85

Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

Sign in

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

70%1.25
High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Sign in

Form and context

Almeria

  • homeBurgos2:1
  • awayMallorca1:0
  • homeCelta Vigo II2:0
  • awayCordoba2:0
  • homeCadiz3:2

Leganes

  • awayCadiz0:4
  • homeCastellon0:2
  • homeGranada3:2
  • awayTenerife0:2
  • awayLas Palmas0:0

Head to head

  • 04/05/26Segunda División2:1
  • 11/22/25Segunda División3:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Eibar870118:721
2Castellon862015:320
3Almeria860213:518
4Girona842214:814
5Mallorca84228:314
6Burgos842212:914
7Sabadell83418:613
8Sporting Gijon84138:813
9Granada832313:1311
10Real Oviedo83238:811
11Las Palmas832312:1311
12Tenerife832310:1211
13Leganes83236:1111
14Real Valladolid82338:119
15Cordoba830513:189

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.