UCV Moquegua — Alianza Lima, Primera División

Peru, Primera DivisiónOctober 25 at 06:15 PM

UCV Moquegua

1.5LLLLW

—

Alianza Lima

3.4WLDLD

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

22%23%55%

UCV Moquegua22%Draw23%Alianza Lima55%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1UCV Moquegua22%4.54—

XDraw23%4.29—

2Alianza Lima55%1.83—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes51%

ours 1.94

No49%

ours 2.06

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricUCV MoqueguaAlianza LimaCombined

Goals scored0.330.671.00

Conceded2.000.672.67

Corners9.010.39.6

Cards2.51.54.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.