Both teams to score
Yes64%
ours 1.57
No36%
ours 2.74
All matches
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TSV Havelse — FC Ingolstadt 04, 3. Liga
Germany, 3. Liga
TSV Havelse
LLDLW
FC Ingolstadt 04
LLWLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
35%24%41%
TSV Havelse35%Draw24%FC Ingolstadt 0441%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1TSV Havelse2.88—
XDraw4.21—
2FC Ingolstadt 042.41—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricTSV HavelseFC Ingolstadt 04Combined
Goals scored0.330.170.50
Conceded0.830.831.66
Corners7.012.59.8
Cards2.02.04.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Confident answers
The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches
Corners
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches
Cards
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches
This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
TSV HavelseFC Ingolstadt 04
TSV Havelse 35%, FC Ingolstadt 04 41%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.
TSV Havelse 35%Draw 24%FC Ingolstadt 04 41%
1st half
32 · 35 · 33
2nd half
33 · 30 · 37
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 12.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
TSV Havelse
- homeSC Fortuna Köln1:3
- awayMSV Duisburg1:2
- homeSG Sonnenhof Großaspach2:2
- awaySC Preußen 06 Münster1:2
- homeSV Waldhof Mannheim 073:2
FC Ingolstadt 04
- awayFC Viktoria Köln0:3
- homeTSG 1899 Hoffenheim II1:2
- away1. FC Saarbrucken1:0
- homeTSV Alemannia Aachen0:3
- awaySG Sonnenhof Großaspach2:0
Head to head
- 02/21/263. Liga2:3
- 09/17/253. Liga2:6
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
12
SC Fortuna Köln72328:89
SC Fortuna Köln72328:8913
SG Sonnenhof Großaspach72236:98
SG Sonnenhof Großaspach72236:9814FC Ingolstadt 0472237:118
FC Ingolstadt 0472237:11815
VfB Stuttgart 1893 II721412:157
VfB Stuttgart 1893 II721412:15716
FC Würzburger Kickers721411:157
FC Würzburger Kickers721411:15717
SV Meppen 191272058:156
SV Meppen 191272058:15618
SSV Jahn 2000 Regensburg712413:175
SSV Jahn 2000 Regensburg712413:17519
SV Wehen Wiesbaden71245:135
SV Wehen Wiesbaden71245:13520TSV Havelse711510:154
TSV Havelse711510:154Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.