All matches

Hoffenheim — Lyon, UEFA Europa League

Europe, UEFA Europa League

Hoffenheim
1.9LLWLL
—
Lyon
3.0WWDWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
40%24%36%
Hoffenheim40%Draw24%Lyon36%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Hoffenheim40%2.48—
XDraw24%4.18—
2Lyon36%2.79—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes66%

ours 1.51

No34%

ours 2.95

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricHoffenheimLyonCombined
Goals scored0.501.001.50
Conceded1.000.171.17
Corners11.79.310.5
Cards1.72.34.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

HoffenheimLyon

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 40%, Olympique Lyonnais 36%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 40%Draw 24%Olympique Lyonnais 36%
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 12.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Hoffenheim

  • awayPaderborn1:3
  • awayOFI0:2
  • homeStuttgart2:1
  • homeBorussia Dortmund2:3
  • awayKoln2:3

Lyon

  • homeRennes4:0
  • awayAnderlecht2:1
  • awayParis FC0:0
  • homeAuxerre3:1
  • homeLe Havre1:1

Head to head

  • 11/07/24UEFA Europa League2:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
28Bayer Leverkusen11002:03
29Bournemouth11002:13
30Lyon11002:13
31Olympiakos11002:13
32Torreense11002:13
33Sunderland11001:03
34Red Star Belgrade21014:53
35Sint-Truiden21013:43
36Zilina21012:33
37Viktoria Plzen31025:73
38Shamrock Rovers21014:63
39Vikingur Reykjavik21013:53
40Kauno Zalgiris21011:33
41St. Gallen21012:63
42U Cluj20200:02
43Dynamo Kyiv40222:52
44Hapoel Be'er Sheva10100:01
45Sturm Graz10100:01
46Rennes10100:01
47Dinamo Zagreb10100:01
48Twente20113:41
49KuPS20112:31
50Rangers20112:31
51Lincoln Red Imps20111:21
52Larne20111:21
53Gornik Zabrze20111:21
54Aluminij20110:11
55Hammarby20112:41
56Hearts20112:71
57Real Sociedad10011:20
58Levski Sofia10010:10
59AZ Alkmaar10010:10
60Celta Vigo10010:10
61Derry City20023:50
62Celtic10011:30
63Celje10010:20
64Hoffenheim10010:20
65AC Milan10010:20
66Marseille10011:40

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.