All matches

Toronto — DC United, MLS

USA, MLS

Toronto
1.3LLLWD
—
DC United
1.1DLDWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
48%25%27%
Toronto48%Draw25%DC United27%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Toronto48%2.07—
XDraw25%4.05—
2DC United27%3.71—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes59%

ours 1.69

No41%

ours 2.44

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricTorontoDC UnitedCombined
Goals scored0.170.500.67
Conceded0.830.501.33
Corners12.017.014.5
Cards1.01.02.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

TorontoDC United

Toronto FC 48%, DC United 27%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.

Toronto FC 48%Draw 25%DC United 27%
1st half
36 · 39 · 25
2nd half
36 · 37 · 27
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Home or draw

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Toronto

  • awayNashville SC0:2
  • awaySt. Louis City1:3
  • awayOrlando City0:3
  • homeNashville SC2:1
  • homeChicago Fire4:4

DC United

  • awayVancouver Whitecaps3:3
  • homeCharlotte1:2
  • homeAtlanta United0:0
  • homeColumbus Crew2:1
  • homeLos Angeles0:0

Head to head

  • 07/25/26MLS1:2
  • 05/10/25MLS2:0
  • 02/23/25MLS2:2
  • 08/31/24MLS1:3
  • 06/01/24MLS2:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
22Real Salt Lake27951340:4432
23Austin277101035:4731
24DC United26612834:4230
25Columbus Crew27851439:4329
26Minnesota United27781240:4929
27Toronto276111039:5129
28Atlanta United27761432:4527
29Montreal Impact27661534:5424

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.