Tepatitlan — Atletico Morelia, Ascenso MX

Mexico, Ascenso MXOctober 10 at 01:00 AM

Tepatitlan

WLLLL

—

Atletico Morelia

DLWWW

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

30%28%41%

Tepatitlan30%Draw28%Atletico Morelia41%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Tepatitlan30%3.29—

XDraw28%3.55—

2Atletico Morelia41%2.41—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.86

No46%

ours 2.17

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricTepatitlanAtletico MoreliaCombined

Goals scored1.171.672.84

Conceded3.170.673.84

Corners9.711.010.3

Cards2.52.24.7

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

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70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches

Corners

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69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches

Cards

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69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches

This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.