All matches

Levadia — Harju Jalgpallikool, Meistriliiga

Estonia, Meistriliiga

Levadia
4.1DWWWW
—
Harju Jalgpallikool
1.4DWWLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
76%16%
Levadia76%Draw16%Harju Jalgpallikool8%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Levadia76%1.32—
XDraw16%6.44—
2Harju Jalgpallikool8%11.78—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.87

No46%

ours 2.15

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricLevadiaHarju JalgpallikoolCombined
Goals scored1.830.832.66
Conceded0.170.500.67
Corners13.712.313.0
Cards2.03.35.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

LevadiaHarju Jalgpallikool

Tallinna FC Levadia 76%, Harju Jalgpallikool 8%. The safest is “Tallinna FC Levadia or draw” at 90%.

Tallinna FC Levadia 76%Draw 16%Harju Jalgpallikool 8%
1st half
56 · 31 · 13
2nd half
48 · 34 · 18
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Under 2.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Levadia

  • awayNarva Trans1:1
  • homeTammeka Tartu6:0
  • homeVaprus Parnu4:0
  • homeKuressaare4:0
  • awayPaide2:0

Harju Jalgpallikool

  • homeKuressaare0:0
  • awayPaide2:1
  • awayVaprus Parnu3:2
  • homeTammeka Tartu0:2
  • awayNomme United2:1

Head to head

  • 08/16/26Meistriliiga2:1
  • 05/09/26Meistriliiga3:0
  • 03/15/26Meistriliiga3:1
  • 11/08/25Meistriliiga2:2
  • 07/19/25Meistriliiga3:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Levadia29226181:2172
2Flora291811059:3955
3Paide29156848:3651
4Nomme Kalju29155952:2750
5Tammeka Tartu291421337:4744
6Harju Jalgpallikool291221541:4638
7Vaprus Parnu29941638:5831
8Kuressaare29851631:4929

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.