All matches

Flora — Narva Trans, Meistriliiga

Estonia, Meistriliiga

Flora
3.0WWDWW
—
Narva Trans
1.1DLDLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
66%19%15%
Flora66%Draw19%Narva Trans15%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Flora66%1.51—
XDraw19%5.36—
2Narva Trans15%6.70—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.80

No44%

ours 2.25

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFloraNarva TransCombined
Goals scored0.500.170.67
Conceded0.330.170.50
Corners8.016.012.0
Cards0.00.00.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

FloraNarva Trans

Tallinna FC Flora 66%, JK Narva Trans 15%. The safest is “Tallinna FC Flora or draw” at 78%.

Tallinna FC Flora 66%Draw 19%JK Narva Trans 15%
1st half
43 · 36 · 21
2nd half
40 · 37 · 24
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 12.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Flora

  • homeVaprus Parnu3:2
  • awayNomme United3:2
  • awayNarva Trans2:2
  • homeNomme Kalju2:1
  • homeTammeka Tartu3:2

Narva Trans

  • homeLevadia1:1
  • awayNomme Kalju0:2
  • homeFlora2:2
  • awayKuressaare1:3
  • homeTammeka Tartu0:2

Head to head

  • 09/08/26Meistriliiga2:2
  • 05/16/26Meistriliiga3:0
  • 04/22/26Meistriliiga6:0
  • 10/21/25Meistriliiga4:0
  • 08/02/25Meistriliiga1:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Levadia29226181:2172
2Flora291811059:3955
3Paide29156848:3651
4Nomme Kalju29155952:2750
5Tammeka Tartu291421337:4744
6Harju Jalgpallikool291221541:4638
7Vaprus Parnu29941638:5831
8Kuressaare29851631:4929
9Nomme United29911947:6828
10Narva Trans29542022:6519

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.