Both teams to score
Yes60%
ours 1.66
No40%
ours 2.51
All matches
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Sydney — Adelaide United, A-League
Australia, A-League
Sydney
2.0LDDWD
Adelaide United
2.1LDWWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
42%25%33%
Sydney42%Draw25%Adelaide United33%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Sydney2.37—
XDraw4.05—
2Adelaide United3.03—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricSydneyAdelaide UnitedCombined
Goals scored0.831.332.16
Conceded0.831.332.16
Corners10.611.210.9
Cards2.21.53.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
SydneyAdelaide United
Sydney FC 42%, Adelaide United FC 33%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.
Sydney FC 42%Draw 25%Adelaide United FC 33%
1st half
36 · 40 · 24
2nd half
37 · 32 · 31
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total cards: Under 4.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Sydney
- awayAuckland0:1
- awayNewcastle Jets1:1
- homeNewcastle Jets1:1
- awayMelbourne Victory1:0
- homeAuckland2:2
Adelaide United
- homeAuckland0:3
- awayAuckland1:1
- awayMelbourne City2:1
- homeMacarthur3:1
- awayNewcastle Jets1:1
Head to head
- 02/14/26A-League1:2
- 10/17/25A-League1:2
- 04/05/25A-League3:2
- 02/01/25A-League4:1
- 12/20/24A-League3:3
Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.