Swindon Town — Crewe Alexandra, EFL League Two

England, EFL League TwoOctober 10 at 11:30 AM

Swindon Town

LDLLW

—

Crewe Alexandra

WDDDD

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

44%25%31%

Swindon TownMarket 2.5744%DrawMarket 3.3825%Crewe AlexandraMarket 2.4931%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Swindon Town44%39%2.292.57+4.7

XDraw25%30%3.943.38-4.2

2Crewe Alexandra31%40%3.222.49-9.2

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.81book 1.57

No45%

ours 2.24book 2.25

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSwindon TownCrewe AlexandraCombined

Goals scored1.171.502.67

Conceded1.501.172.67

Corners12.89.811.3

Cards1.51.73.2

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start free Sign in

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

This market opens with a subscription.

70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches

Corners

This market opens with a subscription.

69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches

Cards

This market opens with a subscription.

69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches

This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.