SV Waldhof Mannheim 07 — FC Ingolstadt 04, 3. Liga

Germany, 3. LigaOctober 14 at 05:00 PM

SV Waldhof Mannheim 07

WLWLL

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FC Ingolstadt 04

LLWLW

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

45%24%31%

SV Waldhof Mannheim 0745%Draw24%FC Ingolstadt 0431%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1SV Waldhof Mannheim 0745%2.22—

XDraw24%4.12—

2FC Ingolstadt 0431%3.25—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes62%

ours 1.61

No38%

ours 2.63

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSV Waldhof Mannheim 07FC Ingolstadt 04Combined

Goals scored1.000.671.67

Conceded1.001.332.33

Corners8.811.610.2

Cards2.02.04.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

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70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches

Corners

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69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches

Cards

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69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches

This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

SV Waldhof Mannheim 07FC Ingolstadt 04

SV Waldhof Mannheim 07 45%, FC Ingolstadt 04 31%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.

SV Waldhof Mannheim 07 45%Draw 24%FC Ingolstadt 04 31%

1st half

39 · 34 · 27

2nd half

40 · 33 · 27

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 12.5

70%

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Form and context