Both teams to score
Yes59%
ours 1.70
No41%
ours 2.42
All matches
—
Elversberg — Mainz 05, Bundesliga
Germany, Bundesliga
Elversberg
2.7DLWWW
Mainz 05
2.3WLWDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
43%26%31%
Elversberg43%Draw26%Mainz 0531%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Elversberg2.31—
XDraw3.87—
2Mainz 053.24—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricElversbergMainz 05Combined
Goals scored0.831.672.50
Conceded0.831.001.83
Corners12.39.310.8
Cards1.72.74.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
ElversbergMainz 05
SV 07 Elversberg 43%, 1. FSV Mainz 05 31%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
SV 07 Elversberg 43%Draw 26%1. FSV Mainz 05 31%
1st half
35 · 36 · 29
2nd half
35 · 39 · 26
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Over 8.5
70%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Elversberg
- awaySchalke 040:0
- homeBayern Munich1:2
- awayBorussia Monchengladbach4:3
- homeBayer Leverkusen3:2
- homePreußen 06 Münster3:0
Mainz 05
- awayBorussia Monchengladbach4:3
- homeEintracht Frankfurt1:3
- awayHamburger SV5:0
- homePaderborn0:0
- awayHeidenheim2:0
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4
Augsburg421111:67
Augsburg421111:675
Bayer Leverkusen421110:57
Bayer Leverkusen421110:576Mainz 05421110:67
Mainz 05421110:677Elversberg42118:77
Elversberg42118:778
Werder Bremen42118:87
Werder Bremen42118:879
RB Leipzig42029:56
RB Leipzig42029:56Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.