Both teams to score
Yes56%
ours 1.78
No44%
ours 2.28
All matches
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Sunderland — Leeds United, Premier League
England, Premier League
Sunderland
2.4LWLDW
Leeds United
2.9DWDDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
41%27%32%
Sunderland41%Draw27%Leeds United32%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Sunderland2.42—
XDraw3.72—
2Leeds United3.14—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricSunderlandLeeds UnitedCombined
Goals scored0.671.001.67
Conceded0.830.501.33
Corners14.010.312.1
Cards2.01.53.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
SunderlandLeeds United
Sunderland AFC 41%, Leeds United FC 32%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.
Sunderland AFC 41%Draw 27%Leeds United FC 32%
1st half
34 · 40 · 26
2nd half
36 · 38 · 26
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 10.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Sunderland
- awayManchester City3:5
- homeAZ Alkmaar1:0
- homeArsenal0:2
- awayBrentford1:1
- homeFulham1:0
Leeds United
- homeCrystal Palace0:0
- homeNewcastle United4:1
- awayBrighton1:1
- homeBrentford1:1
- awayNottingham Forest1:0
Head to head
- 03/03/26Premier League1:0
- 12/28/25Premier League1:1
- 02/17/25Championship1:2
- 10/04/24Championship2:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3
Brighton531116:510
Brighton531116:5104
Brentford523010:49
Brentford523010:495Leeds United52307:39
Leeds United52307:396
Liverpool52307:49
Liverpool52307:497
Everton52306:39
Everton52306:398
Hull City52216:48
Hull City52216:489
Newcastle United52219:98
Newcastle United52219:9810
Chelsea521210:127
Chelsea521210:12711
Ipswich Town52037:116
Ipswich Town52037:11612
Manchester United51228:85
Manchester United51228:8513
Nottingham Forest51224:55
Nottingham Forest51224:5514Sunderland51136:104
Sunderland51136:10415
Crystal Palace51136:114
Crystal Palace51136:11416
Aston Villa51134:94
Aston Villa51134:94Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.