All matches

St Patrick's — Shelbourne, Premier Division

Republic of Ireland, Premier Division

St Patrick's
2.8WWWLW
—
Shelbourne
2.2DWLLD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
53%27%20%
St Patrick's53%Draw27%Shelbourne20%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1St Patrick's53%1.90—
XDraw27%3.68—
2Shelbourne20%4.93—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.90

No47%

ours 2.11

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSt Patrick'sShelbourneCombined
Goals scored1.830.832.66
Conceded0.501.001.50
Corners9.88.49.1
Cards1.22.63.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

St Patrick'sShelbourne

St Patrick's Athletic FC 53%, Shelbourne FC 20%. The safest is “St Patrick's Athletic FC or draw” at 80%.

St Patrick's Athletic FC 53%Draw 27%Shelbourne FC 20%
1st half
43 · 36 · 21
2nd half
34 · 43 · 23
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

St Patrick's

  • awaySligo Rovers1:0
  • awayDundalk4:0
  • homeShamrock Rovers2:0
  • homeWaterford0:2
  • awayDrogheda United2:0

Shelbourne

  • awayGalway United1:1
  • awayDundalk3:2
  • homeDrogheda United1:2
  • homeDerry City0:1
  • awayShamrock Rovers0:0

Head to head

  • 08/09/26Premier Division2:1
  • 05/15/26Premier Division0:1
  • 03/06/26Premier Division3:2
  • 11/01/25Premier Division0:0
  • 06/16/25Premier Division0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1St Patrick's32178752:2559
2Bohemians32178757:3859
3Shamrock Rovers31178649:3159
4Derry City32914945:4241
5Dundalk3310111250:5541
6Shelbourne329131042:4540
7Galway United329111242:4838
8Waterford327131244:5434

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.