Both teams to score
Yes56%
ours 1.77
No44%
ours 2.30
All matches
—
St Patrick's — Bohemians, Premier Division
Republic of Ireland, Premier Division
St Patrick's
2.8WWWLW
Bohemians
2.3WWWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
45%28%27%
St Patrick's45%Draw28%Bohemians27%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1St Patrick's2.22—
XDraw3.62—
2Bohemians3.65—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricSt Patrick'sBohemiansCombined
Goals scored1.171.172.34
Conceded0.000.670.67
Corners7.710.08.8
Cards1.01.32.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
St Patrick'sBohemians
St Patrick's Athletic FC 45%, Bohemian FC 27%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.
St Patrick's Athletic FC 45%Draw 28%Bohemian FC 27%
1st half
40 · 35 · 25
2nd half
32 · 42 · 26
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Over 8.5
67%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
St Patrick's
- awaySligo Rovers1:0
- awayDundalk4:0
- homeShamrock Rovers2:0
- homeWaterford0:2
- awayDrogheda United2:0
Bohemians
- awayDundalk2:1
- homeDrogheda United2:1
- awayGalway United3:2
- homeSligo Rovers3:0
- homeDerry City5:3
Head to head
- 06/26/26Premier Division0:2
- 04/24/26Premier Division3:1
- 02/08/26Premier Division0:0
- 10/20/25Premier Division0:0
- 07/04/25Premier Division0:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1St Patrick's32178752:2559
St Patrick's32178752:25592Bohemians32178757:3859
Bohemians32178757:38593
Shamrock Rovers31178649:3159
Shamrock Rovers31178649:31594
Derry City32914945:4241
Derry City32914945:4241Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.