Both teams to score
Yes62%
ours 1.62book 1.42
No38%
ours 2.61book 2.66
All matches
—
St. Louis City — LA Galaxy, MLS
USA, MLS
St. Louis City
1.8WWWDW
LA Galaxy
1.8WWDLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
54%24%23%
St. Louis CityMarket 1.6754%DrawMarket 4.6324%LA GalaxyMarket 4.6323%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1St. Louis City1.861.67-6.2
XDraw4.254.63+2.0
2LA Galaxy4.414.63+1.1
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricSt. Louis CityLA GalaxyCombined
Goals scored3.001.674.67
Conceded1.502.003.50
Corners9.511.210.3
Cards1.81.53.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
St. Louis CityLA Galaxy
St. Louis City SC 54%, LA Galaxy 23%. The safest is “St. Louis City SC or draw” at 77%.
St. Louis City SC 54%Draw 24%LA Galaxy 23%
1st half
49 · 33 · 18
2nd half
34 · 37 · 29
Bookmakers: 1.67 · 4.63 · 4.63
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Second half total: Under 2.5
72%1.36
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
St. Louis City
- awayNew York Red Bulls3:0
- homeToronto3:1
- homeMinnesota United4:2
- awayPortland Timbers2:2
- awayVancouver Whitecaps3:1
LA Galaxy
- homeColorado Rapids3:2
- awayMinnesota United3:2
- homeSeattle Sounders1:1
- awayVancouver Whitecaps0:3
- homeNew England Revolution2:1
Head to head
- 07/23/26MLS3:1
- 06/14/25MLS3:3
- 03/09/25MLS3:0
- 09/01/24MLS2:1
- 03/17/24MLS3:3
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
Nashville SC27186355:2160
Nashville SC27186355:21602
Vancouver Whitecaps26155659:2650
Vancouver Whitecaps26155659:26503St. Louis City27138648:3647
St. Louis City27138648:36474
Dallas27138650:4247
Dallas27138650:42475
Inter Miami271210564:5046
Inter Miami271210564:50466
New England Revolution27144945:3646
New England Revolution27144945:36467
San Jose Earthquakes27136849:3945
San Jose Earthquakes27136849:39458
Houston Dynamo27135934:3244
Houston Dynamo27135934:32449
Charlotte27127847:3843
Charlotte27127847:384310
Chicago Fire26126846:3842
Chicago Fire26126846:384211
Los Angeles28118943:3041
Los Angeles28118943:304112
Philadelphia Union271161054:4439
Philadelphia Union271161054:443913
Seattle Sounders27108935:3538
Seattle Sounders27108935:353814
Colorado Rapids271131338:3836
Colorado Rapids271131338:383615LA Galaxy28991037:4436
LA Galaxy28991037:443616
Orlando City271041348:6434
Orlando City271041348:643417
New York City27891041:3633
New York City27891041:3633Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.