Both teams to score
Yes62%
ours 1.61
No38%
ours 2.63
All matches
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Jagiellonia — Anderlecht, UEFA Europa League
Europe, UEFA Europa League
Jagiellonia
2.8LLLWL
Anderlecht
2.5WLWDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
38%25%37%
Jagiellonia38%Draw25%Anderlecht37%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Jagiellonia2.63—
XDraw3.98—
2Anderlecht2.72—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricJagielloniaAnderlechtCombined
Goals scored0.330.831.16
Conceded1.170.331.50
Corners10.710.010.3
Cards1.32.03.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
JagielloniaAnderlecht
SSA Jagiellonia Białystok 38%, RSC Anderlecht 37%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
SSA Jagiellonia Białystok 38%Draw 25%RSC Anderlecht 37%
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 11.5
70%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Jagiellonia
- homeLegia Warsaw1:3
- awayOlympiakos1:2
- awayWisla Krakow0:2
- homeSlask Wroclaw2:1
- awayLech Poznan1:2
Anderlecht
- homeZulte-Waregem3:0
- homeLyon1:2
- awayMechelen1:0
- homeGenk0:0
- homeKortrijk1:0
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2
Besiktas760112:218
Besiktas760112:2183
Benfica751121:616
Benfica751121:6164Anderlecht751115:616
Anderlecht751115:6165
Salzburg54109:313
Salzburg54109:3136
CSKA Sofia83239:1111
CSKA Sofia83239:11117
Lech Poznan531115:610
Lech Poznan531115:6108Jagiellonia531110:510
Jagiellonia531110:5109
Omonia53117:410
Omonia53117:41010
OFI33007:09
OFI33007:09Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.