Both teams to score
Yes59%
ours 1.71book 1.57
No41%
ours 2.41book 2.25
All matches
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Jagiellonia — Gornik Zabrze, Ekstraklasa
Poland, Ekstraklasa
Jagiellonia
2.8LLLWL
Gornik Zabrze
2.4DWWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
42%26%32%
JagielloniaMarket 2.4342%DrawMarket 3.4826%Gornik ZabrzeMarket 2.5832%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Jagiellonia2.402.43+0.5
XDraw3.853.48-2.8
2Gornik Zabrze3.092.58-6.4
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricJagielloniaGornik ZabrzeCombined
Goals scored1.671.503.17
Conceded2.000.832.83
Corners10.29.29.7
Cards1.32.23.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
JagielloniaGornik Zabrze
SSA Jagiellonia Białystok 42%, KS Górnik Zabrze 32%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
SSA Jagiellonia Białystok 42%Draw 26%KS Górnik Zabrze 32%
1st half
36 · 38 · 26
2nd half
31 · 39 · 30
Bookmakers: 2.43 · 3.48 · 2.58
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Under 3.5
68%1.37
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Jagiellonia
- homeLegia Warsaw1:3
- awayOlympiakos1:2
- awayWisla Krakow0:2
- homeSlask Wroclaw2:1
- awayLech Poznan1:2
Gornik Zabrze
- awayMotor Lublin0:0
- awayKorona Kielce2:0
- homeLech Poznan2:1
- awayCracovia Krakow1:0
- awayRakow2:1
Head to head
- 04/24/26Ekstraklasa1:2
- 10/26/25Ekstraklasa1:2
- 05/04/25Ekstraklasa1:1
- 11/03/24Ekstraklasa2:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Gornik Zabrze971116:822
Gornik Zabrze971116:8222
Legia Warsaw954019:819
Legia Warsaw954019:8193
Lech Poznan861117:719
Lech Poznan861117:7194
Wisla Krakow952217:1217
Wisla Krakow952217:12175
Pogon Szczecin843112:615
Pogon Szczecin843112:6156
Korona Kielce943212:1015
Korona Kielce943212:10157
Zaglebie Lubin943211:1015
Zaglebie Lubin943211:10158
Piast Gliwice941416:1513
Piast Gliwice941416:15139
GKS Katowice840416:1312
GKS Katowice840416:131210Jagiellonia840412:1312
Jagiellonia840412:131211
Wisla Plock83239:1211
Wisla Plock83239:121112
Widzew Lodz916213:139
Widzew Lodz916213:139Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.