Both teams to score
Yes63%
ours 1.58
No37%
ours 2.71
All matches
—
Sporting Kansas City — Real Salt Lake, MLS
USA, MLS
Sporting Kansas City
0.5LWLWL
Real Salt Lake
1.6WLLLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
38%24%37%
Sporting Kansas City38%Draw24%Real Salt Lake37%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Sporting Kansas City2.60—
XDraw4.12—
2Real Salt Lake2.68—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricSporting Kansas CityReal Salt LakeCombined
Goals scored1.500.502.00
Conceded1.171.172.34
Corners13.512.312.9
Cards2.52.04.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Sporting Kansas CityReal Salt Lake
Sporting Kansas City 38%, Real Salt Lake 37%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.
Sporting Kansas City 38%Draw 24%Real Salt Lake 37%
1st half
33 · 33 · 34
2nd half
33 · 38 · 29
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total cards: Under 4.5
67%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Sporting Kansas City
- awaySeattle Sounders1:2
- awayHouston Dynamo2:0
- homePhiladelphia Union3:4
- homeLos Angeles3:1
- awayDallas3:4
Real Salt Lake
- homeNew England Revolution3:0
- awaySeattle Sounders0:2
- homeVancouver Whitecaps0:3
- homeNew York City0:2
- awayHouston Dynamo1:2
Head to head
- 04/04/26MLS1:3
- 09/14/25MLS1:2
- 06/29/25MLS1:1
- 06/20/24MLS3:4
- 05/05/24MLS0:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
20
San Diego27881147:4732
San Diego27881147:473221
Portland Timbers27951348:5132
Portland Timbers27951348:513222Real Salt Lake27951340:4432
Real Salt Lake27951340:443223
Austin277101035:4731
Austin277101035:473124
DC United26612834:4230
DC United26612834:423025
Columbus Crew27851439:4329
Columbus Crew27851439:432926
Minnesota United27781240:4929
Minnesota United27781240:492927
Toronto276111039:5129
Toronto276111039:512928
Atlanta United27761432:4527
Atlanta United27761432:452729
Montreal Impact27661534:5424
Montreal Impact27661534:542430Sporting Kansas City27631832:6521
Sporting Kansas City27631832:6521Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.