Both teams to score
Yes57%
ours 1.77book 1.80
No43%
ours 2.30book 1.91
All matches
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America de Cali — Independiente Medellin, Categoria Primera A
Colombia, Categoria Primera A
America de Cali
2.9WWDLW
Independiente Medellin
2.7LDLWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
50%26%23%
America de CaliMarket 1.8250%DrawMarket 3.4426%Independiente MedellinMarket 4.2123%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1America de Cali1.981.82-4.5
XDraw3.833.44-3.0
2Independiente Medellin4.274.21-0.4
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricAmerica de CaliIndependiente MedellinCombined
Goals scored1.501.172.67
Conceded0.831.672.50
Corners10.58.59.5
Cards2.53.05.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
America de CaliIndependiente Medellin
Sociedad Anónima Deportiva América SA 50%, Deportivo Independiente Medellín 23%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
Sociedad Anónima Deportiva América SA 50%Draw 26%Deportivo Independiente Medellín 23%
1st half
40 · 38 · 21
2nd half
32 · 40 · 28
Bookmakers: 1.82 · 3.44 · 4.21
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Under 3.5
71%1.27
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
America de Cali
- awayLlaneros2:1
- homeRionegro Aguilas1:0
- awayDeportes Tolima1:1
- homePasto0:1
- homeAlianza Valledupar3:0
Independiente Medellin
- homeIndependiente Santa Fe0:1
- homeMillonarios2:2
- awayJunior0:2
- homeJaguares de Cordoba2:1
- awayBucaramanga2:2
Head to head
- 03/30/26Categoria Primera A1:2
- 12/02/25Categoria Primera A1:1
- 11/27/25Categoria Primera A2:1
- 11/14/25Categoria Primera A0:3
- 06/20/25Categoria Primera A1:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
Atletico Nacional35252870:3177
Atletico Nacional35252870:31772America de Cali33187850:2761
America de Cali33187850:27613
Independiente Santa Fe351415654:3657
Independiente Santa Fe351415654:36574
Deportes Tolima351511946:3456
Deportes Tolima351511946:34565
Junior361581354:4853
Junior361581354:48536
Deportivo Cali31149840:2551
Deportivo Cali31149840:25517
Millonarios321211949:3447
Millonarios321211949:34478
Once Caldas331114848:4147
Once Caldas331114848:41479
Bucaramanga301113646:3046
Bucaramanga301113646:304610Independiente Medellin311371145:4046
Independiente Medellin311371145:404611
Pasto331271438:4643
Pasto331271438:464312
La Equidad349141142:5341
La Equidad349141142:5341Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.