All matches

Sligo Rovers — Derry City, Premier Division

Republic of Ireland, Premier Division

Sligo Rovers
1.0LLLLD
—
Derry City
2.1WDWDL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
25%26%49%
Sligo Rovers25%Draw26%Derry City49%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Sligo Rovers25%4.02—
XDraw26%3.86—
2Derry City49%2.03—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.86

No46%

ours 2.16

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSligo RoversDerry CityCombined
Goals scored0.170.670.84
Conceded1.000.331.33
Corners11.710.311.0
Cards2.72.75.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Sligo RoversDerry City

Sligo Rovers FC 25%, Derry City FC 49%. The safest is “Derry City FC or draw” at 76%.

Sligo Rovers FC 25%Draw 26%Derry City FC 49%
1st half
30 · 36 · 34
2nd half
21 · 40 · 39
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Sligo Rovers

  • homeSt Patrick's0:1
  • homeGalway United1:3
  • awayDrogheda United0:2
  • awayBohemians0:3
  • homeWaterford0:0

Derry City

  • homeGalway United1:0
  • awayWaterford2:2
  • awayShelbourne1:0
  • homeShamrock Rovers3:3
  • awayBohemians3:5

Head to head

  • 08/07/26Premier Division0:2
  • 04/06/26Premier Division0:0
  • 02/06/26Premier Division1:2
  • 10/05/25Premier Division0:1
  • 07/12/25Premier Division2:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2Bohemians32178757:3859
3Shamrock Rovers31178649:3159
4Derry City32914945:4241
5Dundalk3310111250:5541
6Shelbourne329131042:4540
7Galway United329111242:4838
8Waterford327131244:5434
9Drogheda United328101438:5134
10Sligo Rovers32581924:5423

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.